Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.705918 24.681224 26.808720 29.280567 32.086244 35.186909 38.893551
2026-01-18 19.402427 22.084857 25.172454 29.028914 33.773520 39.496880 47.044276
2026-01-25 17.160432 20.222569 23.931459 28.838401 35.292156 43.690994 55.805413
2026-02-01 15.575756 18.868617 23.024317 28.791825 36.825322 48.013509 65.566655
2026-02-08 14.306725 17.722692 22.181383 28.622992 38.051324 52.002886 75.681540
2026-02-15 13.270738 16.749244 21.420558 28.407236 39.091451 55.800189 86.358838
2026-02-22 12.408955 15.914914 20.740615 28.182269 40.021189 59.510573 97.821916
2026-03-01 11.716562 15.245565 20.212873 28.091931 41.101851 63.607717 111.174920
2026-03-08 11.108983 14.641542 19.714296 27.969070 42.076333 67.655302 125.720531
2026-03-15 10.837846 14.495159 19.869430 28.880364 44.924704 75.741619 152.394032
2026-03-22 10.313659 13.935358 19.343747 28.606352 45.595023 79.650962 170.575123
2026-03-29 9.894532 13.503425 18.979084 28.557664 46.661970 84.599787 193.924527
2026-04-05 9.566130 13.197800 18.804564 28.844872 48.474003 91.763153 228.525176
2026-04-12 9.161358 12.750478 18.370096 28.628469 49.256444 96.776577 259.768511
2026-04-19 8.798985 12.348250 17.980534 28.453863 50.101274 102.191589 296.877972
2026-04-26 8.491157 12.014383 17.680287 28.413167 51.226110 108.667892 344.432135
2026-05-03 8.186290 11.668033 17.334398 28.249491 52.052204 114.590384 396.070235
2026-05-10 7.896726 11.331100 16.982129 28.038515 52.738413 120.344311 454.335960
2026-05-17 7.626676 11.012496 16.641397 27.817984 53.370523 126.166487 521.926244
2026-05-24 7.395881 10.747489 16.378378 27.729424 54.312306 133.332378 611.540754
2026-05-31 7.175540 10.489394 16.111862 27.608846 55.158465 140.519042 717.548300
2026-06-07 7.114351 10.495885 16.321485 28.503555 58.781675 159.191435 985.209757
2026-06-14 6.895463 10.222849 16.002202 28.234569 59.252864 166.129285 1157.505864